Economy & Markets
We assume the end of the conflict is just a geopolitical victory for global stability. In reality the reopening of the Russian consumer market will trigger a sudden and unprecedented revenue surge for specific technology monopolies.
Performance Marketing
We assume index inclusion is just a mechanical stock market event. For Reddit joining the premier American index is actually the ultimate corporate rebranding campaign that will instantly unlock billions in highly conservative advertising budgets.
Cryptocurrencies
We assume corporate treasury management is boring back office accounting. By allowing advertisers to pay with stablecoins Meta just unlocked billions of dollars in dormant gaming capital and fundamentally rewired the speed of global digital user acquisition.
Apache 2.0, 30B, <20GB, runs on a Mac. US gov blessed vs China. Glimmer kills agentic API margin, forces frugal weaker GPT-6 / Claude 5, slashes $965B/$852B valuations and delays IPO. Cloud loses. Google wins second-order.
We assume the future of autonomous warfare is happening entirely in the sky with aerial drone swarms. In reality the most critical defense infrastructure of the next decade is quietly being built deep underwater by an emerging Canadian monopoly.
The technology sector is currently burning billions of dollars in a chaotic race to build artificial general intelligence. The ultimate corporate endgame requires these monopolies to stop competing directly and return to the specific infrastructural moats that made them rich.
We spend hours trying to decode the complex psychological reasons behind bad corporate decisions. The reality is that if you want to understand why any system operates a certain way you just have to follow the underlying reward structure.
We assume artificial intelligence will soon autonomously buy all our groceries and manage our daily shopping. The reality is that agentic commerce is a theoretical fantasy completely blocked by unresolvable payment liability and fundamental consumer psychology.
We assume the next multi trillion dollar economy will be built in low earth orbit. The smartest venture capital is actually pivoting downward to capture the untapped resources and impending geopolitical conflicts hiding on the ocean floor.
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Apache 2.0, 30B, <20GB, runs on a Mac. US gov blessed vs China. Glimmer kills agentic API margin, forces frugal weaker GPT-6 / Claude 5, slashes $965B/$852B valuations and delays IPO. Cloud loses. Google wins second-order.
We assume a corporate data breach will always destroy a public stock price. In reality the impending wave of quantum cyber attacks will eventually force Wall Street to treat getting hacked as a completely normal operating expense.
We assumed Wiz walked away from Google forever when they famously rejected the initial buyout offer. The reality is that Google returned with thirty two billion dollars to officially acquire the startup and weaponize their elite leadership team.
We assume cloud gaming will soon replace the expensive console sitting in our living room. The reality is that interactive streaming is completely bottlenecked by the fundamental laws of physics and server distance.
We assume in vitro fertilization is just a medical procedure to help struggling couples start a family. The reality is that embryo selection is quickly becoming the ultimate geopolitical weapon for engineering a superior macroeconomic workforce.
We assume spreadsheets are the ultimate organizational tool for digital marketing agencies. The reality is that stuffing creative briefs into a grid completely blinds the artificial intelligence agents trying to optimize your campaigns.
We assume the ten digit phone number is the permanent foundation of human communication. The reality is that satellite internet and social messaging platforms are actively turning the phone number into an obsolete piece of legacy telecom plumbing.
We assume the future of autonomous warfare is happening entirely in the sky with aerial drone swarms. In reality the most critical defense infrastructure of the next decade is quietly being built deep underwater by an emerging Canadian monopoly.
We assume building a successful technology startup just requires a clever founder and a laptop. MIT.nano proves that the most lucrative deep tech breakthroughs require hundred million dollar microscopic foundries to actually get off the ground.
What is Moonshots Podcast? Your complete 2026 guide to Peter Diamandis's weekly show with Salim Ismail, Dave Blundin, and Alexander Wissner-Gross. 250+ episodes, best guests, where to listen, and Moonshots LIVE.
We assume the technology giants are recklessly burning cash to win the artificial intelligence race. The reality is that federal tax incentives have turned building heavy server infrastructure into the safest corporate tax shelter on earth.
The technology sector is currently burning billions of dollars in a chaotic race to build artificial general intelligence. The ultimate corporate endgame requires these monopolies to stop competing directly and return to the specific infrastructural moats that made them rich.
