Cyberwarfare
We assume a corporate data breach will always destroy a public stock price. In reality the impending wave of quantum cyber attacks will eventually force Wall Street to treat getting hacked as a completely normal operating expense.
We assumed Wiz walked away from Google forever when they famously rejected the initial buyout offer. The reality is that Google returned with thirty two billion dollars to officially acquire the startup and weaponize their elite leadership team.
Gaming
We assume cloud gaming will soon replace the expensive console sitting in our living room. The reality is that interactive streaming is completely bottlenecked by the fundamental laws of physics and server distance.
Apache 2.0, 30B, <20GB, runs on a Mac. US gov blessed vs China. Glimmer kills agentic API margin, forces frugal weaker GPT-6 / Claude 5, slashes $965B/$852B valuations and delays IPO. Cloud loses. Google wins second-order.
We assume the future of autonomous warfare is happening entirely in the sky with aerial drone swarms. In reality the most critical defense infrastructure of the next decade is quietly being built deep underwater by an emerging Canadian monopoly.
The technology sector is currently burning billions of dollars in a chaotic race to build artificial general intelligence. The ultimate corporate endgame requires these monopolies to stop competing directly and return to the specific infrastructural moats that made them rich.
We spend hours trying to decode the complex psychological reasons behind bad corporate decisions. The reality is that if you want to understand why any system operates a certain way you just have to follow the underlying reward structure.
We assume artificial intelligence will soon autonomously buy all our groceries and manage our daily shopping. The reality is that agentic commerce is a theoretical fantasy completely blocked by unresolvable payment liability and fundamental consumer psychology.
We assume the next multi trillion dollar economy will be built in low earth orbit. The smartest venture capital is actually pivoting downward to capture the untapped resources and impending geopolitical conflicts hiding on the ocean floor.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
We assume in vitro fertilization is just a medical procedure to help struggling couples start a family. The reality is that embryo selection is quickly becoming the ultimate geopolitical weapon for engineering a superior macroeconomic workforce.
We assume spreadsheets are the ultimate organizational tool for digital marketing agencies. The reality is that stuffing creative briefs into a grid completely blinds the artificial intelligence agents trying to optimize your campaigns.
We assume the ten digit phone number is the permanent foundation of human communication. The reality is that satellite internet and social messaging platforms are actively turning the phone number into an obsolete piece of legacy telecom plumbing.
We assume the future of autonomous warfare is happening entirely in the sky with aerial drone swarms. In reality the most critical defense infrastructure of the next decade is quietly being built deep underwater by an emerging Canadian monopoly.
We assume building a successful technology startup just requires a clever founder and a laptop. MIT.nano proves that the most lucrative deep tech breakthroughs require hundred million dollar microscopic foundries to actually get off the ground.
What is Moonshots Podcast? Your complete 2026 guide to Peter Diamandis's weekly show with Salim Ismail, Dave Blundin, and Alexander Wissner-Gross. 250+ episodes, best guests, where to listen, and Moonshots LIVE.
We assume the technology giants are recklessly burning cash to win the artificial intelligence race. The reality is that federal tax incentives have turned building heavy server infrastructure into the safest corporate tax shelter on earth.
The technology sector is currently burning billions of dollars in a chaotic race to build artificial general intelligence. The ultimate corporate endgame requires these monopolies to stop competing directly and return to the specific infrastructural moats that made them rich.
We spend hours trying to decode the complex psychological reasons behind bad corporate decisions. The reality is that if you want to understand why any system operates a certain way you just have to follow the underlying reward structure.
We assume artificial intelligence will soon autonomously buy all our groceries and manage our daily shopping. The reality is that agentic commerce is a theoretical fantasy completely blocked by unresolvable payment liability and fundamental consumer psychology.
We assume video games and streaming movies are two completely separate industries fighting for our wallets. The reality is that the death of physical media is forcing a brutal consolidation where passive watching and active playing merge into a single subscription.
We assume Meta is perfectly content dominating social media and instant messaging. The reality is their artificial intelligence ambitions will inevitably force them to build a native email client just to escape the Google ecosystem.