Barbaros Ozturk | Performance Marketing Leader

AI is Going to be the Black Swan Event for AI (CapEx and Valuations)

November 28, 2025

Artificial Intelligence,Markets / November 28, 2025 / By : Barbaros AI is Going to be the Black Swan Event for AI (CapEx and Valuations) We are building a $1 trillion infrastructure on the assumption that everyone needs an Nvidia GPU. What happens when Google proves you don't? Inspiration: The quiet panic in Jensen Huang’s recent tweets, and the realization that "proprietary" hardware might be the ultimate moat.Everyone thought the "AI Race" was about who could buy the most Nvidia H100s.It was a simple equation: More GPUs = Better AI.Then Google dropped Gemini 3.It wasn't just "good." It was state-of-the-art. And crucially, it was trained entirely on Google's custom TPUs (Tensor Processing Units). Not a single Nvidia GPU was needed for the core training.This shattered the narrative. It proved that you don't need the "arms dealer" (Nvidia) to win the war. You can build your own weapons. The "Nvidia" Overreaction: "We Are Not Enron"Nvidia didn't take this lying down. They issued defensive blog posts, aggressive "benchmark comparisons," and CEO interviews emphasizing their "software moat" (CUDA).When a monopoly starts explaining why they are still relevant, the monopoly is cracking.Here is the risk: If the Hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) all successfully move...

Artificial Intelligence

The AI Race: The Best Bait for Attracting Capital

November 27, 2025

Artificial Intelligence,Google,Markets,Meta,OpenAI,Technology / November 27, 2025 / By : Barbaros The AI Race: The Best Bait for Attracting Capital The "China Threat" isn't just a geopolitical reality. It is the single most effective slide in a Silicon Valley pitch deck. Inspiration: Jensen Huang and Sam Altman on every news channel, and the peculiar reason why China bans Google.Let’s look at the scoreboard.In 2024, US private AI investment hit $109 billion, nearly 12x more than China's $9 billion. In Generative AI, the gap is even wider. We are winning on capital, hrdware (Nvidia), and talent.Yet, if you listen to the news, you’d think we are losing.Why?Because the "AI Race" is the greatest capital magnet in history. The Protectionism ParadoxWe like to think the "best product wins." It doesn't.Google search is objectively superior to Baidu. Yet, it’s banned in China to force domestic adoption. Google is better than Yandex. Yet, Russia pushes Yandex to ensure sovereignty.The lesson? Governments will always throttle superior foreign tech to protect local champions. The "Global AI Market" is a myth; it's a series of walled gardens. The "National Security" BaitWatch Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Jensen Huang (Nvidia). They aren't just selling software and chips anymore. They are...

Artificial Intelligence

First BFCM with GenAI: Ad Creative Strategy in 2025

November 27, 2025

Artificial Intelligence,Google,Meta,Performance Marketing,Technology / November 27, 2025 / By : Barbaros First BFCM with GenAI: Ad Creative Strategy in 2025 The tools finally caught up to the hype. This year, we didn't just "play" with AI; we built our entire Black Friday strategy on it. Inspiration: Early performance surprises and the realization that I could generate 50 high-quality ad variants in the time it used to take to brief a designer for one.GenAI has been "available" for a few years. But let's be honest: until this year (specifically with Nano Banana Pro and Gemini 3), it wasn't ready for prime time.This is the first BFCM where the tools are adequate.Meaning they can render text correctly, handle brand assets without hallucinating, and produce commercial-grade resolution.So, we didn't reinvent the wheel. We took our best-performing evergreen content and gave it a BFCM facelift. New text overlays ("30% OFF"), festive backgrounds (snow, neon, confetti), and high-energy edits. The Findings: It Works (Especially on Meta)Early data is showing strong performance for generated content.The killer app? Meta Catalog Ads (Advantage+ Catalog).We used GenAI to create custom Intro Cards and Frame Overlays for dynamic product ads. Instead of a boring white-background product feed, users see a...

Artificial Intelligence

Google: Rebranding is Inevitable

November 26, 2025

/ / By : Uncategorized / November 26, 2025 / By : Barbaros Google: Rebranding is Inevitable "Googling" is dying. To survive the Agentic Age, the world's biggest search engine needs to stop being a search engine. Inspiration: The confusion of explaining "Gemini for Workspace" to my mom, and the sheer brilliance of Mark Zuckerberg’s "Meta" pivot.Remember when Facebook became Meta?Everyone laughed. "It's just a distraction!" "The Metaverse is a joke!" "Zuck is losing it."The reality? It was genius.It wasn't just about escaping the "toxic" label. It was a masterclass in portfolio management. By creating "Meta," they built a firewall. They separated the reputational debt of the "Facebook" social network—Cambridge Analytica, the political polarization, the "boomer app" reputation—from the parent company.It allowed them to own the next platform (XR) without being weighed down by the baggage of the old one. It was a strategic reset button.Google is in the exact same spot.The name "Google" means "Search." It is a verb. But the future isn't search; it's Agents. The "Gemini" Strategy (The Pivot)Here is the problem: "Googling" is a verb that means "to search for blue links."That behaviour is declining. According to Google’s own internal data, nearly 40% of Gen Z...

Markets

TSMC: To Move or Not to Move

November 26, 2025

/ / By : The markets yawned at Ukraine. Now they are sleeping on Taiwan. But the "Silicon Shield" isn't just about chips—it's about a timeline that ends in 2027. Inspiration: The market's dangerous desensitization to war, Anduril's internal "China 27" roadmap, and the peculiar delays in Arizona.Remember when the Ukraine war started? The markets crashed. Panic was everywhere.Now? A missile strike is just a Tuesday. We have priced in the conflict.We are doing the exact same thing with Taiwan.The market treats a potential invasion as a "black swan" event—something unlikely and far away.Here is the reality check: It is neither unlikely nor far away.But the primary defense mechanism isn't just military. It's the "Silicon Shield."As long as the world's most advanced chips (90% of them) are only made in Taiwan, the US will intervene. If Taiwan goes dark, the global economy collapses overnight.The moment that manufacturing capacity moves, the shield cracks. Part 1: The "Silicon Shield" & The Delay StrategyOn paper, TSMC is building massive fabs in Arizona to "de-risk" the global supply chain. It’s the ultimate diversification play.In reality, those Arizona fabs are facing constant, mysterious delays.We hear about labor shortages. Union disputes. Culture clashes.But ask yourself: Is...

Artificial Intelligence

Excited About the Next Generation of Workforce: The AI-Native

November 22, 2025

Artificial Intelligence,Technology / November 22, 2025 / By : Barbaros Excited About the Next Generation of Workforce: The AI-Native We worried that Millennials were glued to screens. We worried Gen Z was addicted to TikTok. Now, we should worry if we can keep up with the generation that treats intelligence as a utility. Inspiration: The "Intern" who runs the corporate Twitter account, and the 12-year-olds building Python apps without knowing how to code.Every new generation gets a bad rap. It's a pattern as old as time.Boomers thought Millennials were lazy for using email instead of "walking down the hall." Gen X thought Gen Z was useless for staring at their phones all day.Spoiler alert: They weren't lazy. They were efficient.They had natively adopted a technology that compressed time and space. They didn't see the point of a 30-minute meeting when a 30-second text did the job.We are about to see the biggest leap yet.The "AI-Native" generation isn't just using a new tool; they are operating with a completely different cognitive architecture.They don't "search" for answers. They "synthesize" solutions. Part 1: The Speed of the Digital Native & The Attention of the Social NativeLet’s look at the history tape.The Digital Natives...

Artificial Intelligence

Nano Banana Pro: Everyone Can Be a Content Creator

November 21, 2025

Uncategorized / November 21, 2025 / By : Barbaros Nano Banana Pro: Everyone Can Be a Content Creator The barrier to entry just dropped to zero. If you have an idea and a keyboard, you are now a creative agency. Inspiration: The death of the $500 web banner and my friends becoming video game characters.Let's have an honest conversation about the first wave of AI image generators.Tools like the original Nano Banana (and Midjourney v5) were amazing... for memes. They were incredible party tricks.But let’s be real: they were slot machines. You pulled the lever, wrote a prompt, and hoped for a good result.For commercial work, they were not sufficient.The text rendering was poor. It looked like alien hieroglyphics, or generated with different fonts.The control was zero. You couldn't edit just the background without destroying the model's face.Consistency was impossible. You couldn't get the same character in two different poses.It was a toy for Reddit, not a tool for commercial use. The "Pro" Leap: From Slot Machine to Photoshop KillerThis changes now.The new Nano Banana Pro (built on Google's Gemini 3 architecture) isn't just an incremental update. It’s a fundamental paradigm shift in utility.It solves the biggest blockers to commercial...

Artificial Intelligence

Meta AR: The Rise of Heads-Up Displays (HUDs)

November 17, 2025

/ / By : Why the real news from Meta Connect isn't just a camera. It's the beginning of the real-world Iron Man UI. Inspiration: World of Warcraft addons, Iron Man's Jarvis, and the Anduril EagleEye military targeting system.So, Meta Connect just happened.Everyone is talking about the new Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses (Gen 2 and the new "Display" model) and the Oakley Vanguard sports glasses. The media is focused on the camera, the "Hey Meta" AI assistant, and the little privacy light.They're missing the point. Completely.The real revolution isn't the input (the camera). It's the output.This is the consumer-grade birth of the Heads-Up Display (HUD).We are in the middle of a massive platform shift. We're moving from a "heads-down" world, where your face is buried in a phone, to a "heads-up" world, where data is layered onto your vision.This isn't just a new product. It's a new interface for reality. When Video Game UI Becomes Real LifeWhat's a HUD? It's simple. A Heads-Up Display is a transparent display that shows you data without forcing you to look away from your normal view.Think of a fighter pilot's targeting system. Or Iron Man's Jarvis UI.f this sounds familiar, it's because millions of...

Markets

P-Time and M-Time: The 60-Year-Old Concept That Affects the Fate of Your Company (and Even Your Country)

November 2, 2025

Uncategorized / November 2, 2025 / By : Barbaros Title: P-Time and M-Time: The 60-Year-Old Concept That Affects the Fate of Your Company (and Even Your Country) Your view of time is not universal. It’s the most powerful—and invisible—force dictating your success, your stress, and your nation's GDP. Inspiration: How people do things (both professional and personal) very, very differently between cultures.If you know me, you know that I am pretty much obsessed with time.Heck, I even have tattoos related to it.It's the only thing you cannot buy back, no matter how rich you are.So, I am extra grateful for those who dedicate their most precious resource (time) to me.This one is going to be interesting.You will see why I love living in M-Time, with anecdotal examples from my experiences of living in North America and Turkey.If you have taken communication studies courses in college, you will be familiar with it.If not, here we go... Introduction: The Invisible Language of TimeIn 1959, anthropologist Edward T. Hall, a pioneer in intercultural communication, published his groundbreaking book:The Silent Language.He proposed that time "speaks."It's an invisible communication system that tells us what's important.The Core Concept: Hall identified two opposing systems for time:Monochronic (M-Time):...

Markets

Shopify: The Inevitable Journey to the S&P 500

October 28, 2025

/ / By : Shopify: The Inevitable Journey to the S&P 500 Inspiration: The tensions that began to develop between CRA and Shopify.While none of this is financial advice, my prior bets on Uber and Palantir showed the power of index inclusion.So, we are going to talk about how Shopify's growing tension with the CRA may be the catalyst that forces a U.S. move and unlocks the next big "pop."The "Event-Driven" PatternWe saw this with the run-ups for Uber (UBER) and Palantir (PLTR) .When a company is added to a major index, it's not a suggestion; it's a forced buy for trillions in capital.The next and most logical candidate?Shopify (SHOP).ThesisShopify has the market cap, profitability, and U.S. market dominance to earn its spot on the S&P 500.There's just one problem...Which makes it upsetting to confess as a Canadian...It is a Canadian company.But, ironically, a high-stakes battle with the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is providing the perfect political and financial catalyst for Shopify to re-domicile in the U.S.Making its S&P 500 inclusion all but inevitable. Canada vs. Its "Golden Goose"The CRA has been in a legal battle, demanding that Shopify turn over six years of records for over 120,000 Canadian merchants.That's...

Markets

Main Beneficiaries of the GLP-1 Innovations? Insurance Companies.

October 27, 2025

/ / By : Ozempic This. Ozempic That. Inspiration: The Economics of Insurance, Marginal Revolution Podcast.By the time I am writing this (October 2025), I am going to assume you were not living under the rock and heard about new drugs like Ozempic at least once.Maybe it was on the news.Maybe it was at a restaurant, chatting with friends.Or your favourite celebrity allegedly losing tons of weight thanks to it.I have multiple trends who are losing a decent amount of weight (body fat, mostly), after years of my intense efforts to get them to eat healthy and exercise more have failed.So, it is about time I spit some bars about this Miracle Drug.And, there is no doubt that GLP-1 agonists have taken the news and social media posts by storm.But what even are they?Do you eat them? Do you drink them? Heck.. snort them?Alright, easy there, champ.What is this Miracle Drug? GLP-1 Ago What?In short, GLP-1 agonists (not antagonists) mimic the action of a gut hormone.This does three key things:Tells your brain you're full (reducing appetite).Slows your stomach from emptying (increasing that "full" feeling).Helps your pancreas release insulin (improving blood sugar). But... They are not just a "diet drug".Landmark studies (such...

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI’s “Atlas” Can’t Disrupt Google Chrome. But The Next Platform Shift Will.

October 22, 2025

Uncategorized / October 22, 2025 / By : Barbaros OpenAI’s “Atlas” Can’t Disrupt Google Chrome. But The Next Platform Shift Will. $500B in valuation by the way, ladies and gentlemen... Inspiration: Earlier conversations on Threads and now, OpenAI introducing ChatGPT Atlas.It's almost like the market did not learn from its past, but hey, maybe this could create another buying opportunity.Today, OpenAI introduced ChatGPT Atlas and the internet was filled with news articles of how "Alphabet stock falls after OpenAI launches browser".Once again, the market, desperate for a narrative, portrays a new "Chrome Killer."Yet, if you too understand how digital products, user experience design, and incentives work, you will also see that this is such an overreaction to a very, very poor product.Yes, granted, at version zero, but we are talking about a company which has already reached half a trillion dollars in valuation – not your little The Browsing Company with its Arc.So, let's talk about what the Atlas (ironically named after a Titan, and a book of maps, which will most likely endure more pain ahead).Once you finish reading here, you too will see that "Atlas" is not a revolution; it's a high-cost feature in search of a problem.The...

Markets

The Winner of the US-China Tariff War? The Global South

October 19, 2025

Uncategorized / October 19, 2025 / By : Barbaros The Winner of the US-China Tariff War? The Global South There is always an opportunity in every conflict. Inspiration: China Decode podcast, How Labubus Explain China’s Global ReachYou might be asking yourself, "why would a performance marketer write about global trade".In most circumstances, you would be correct.But, once you get to a point at your marketing career, you realize that market condiitons matter more than your own performance.Meaning, many of us think we are doing better than we actually are when the market conditions are great, then are also quick to blame ourselves when the conditions are not ideal.As the quote goes, "everyone is a genius in a bull market". Let's Get Some DataFirst, this is not something recent.Between 2017 and 2022, China's share of US imports fell by 6 percentage points, from 22% to 16%. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has surged into these alternative manufacturing hubs. The ASEAN region, for example, saw its annual FDI inflows nearly double to $60.8 billion in 2018, the year the trade war began.Countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and India have become primary destinations for companies seeking to de-risk their supply chains and circumvent punitive tariffs, a...

Google

Tariffs: The Biggest Threat to YouTube

September 16, 2025

Google,Technology / September 16, 2025 / By : Barbaros Tariffs: The Biggest Threat to YouTube Smart TVs Fueled YouTube's Living Room Takeover, right? Inspiration: Your TV remote sitting next to you.First of all, let's make it clear that this is not a political post that trashes tariff policy, or taken by an international commerce expert.Once again, this is a performance marketer who is trying to connect a few dots and share the process with you, the world.Ready?Great. Let's do this... If you have a smart TV remote next to you, take a look at it.What do you see?Assuming it's not an Apple TV, you most likely see buttons for popular streaming devices like Netflix, Prime Video, and.. YouTube.Companies like Google and Amazon pay a decent amount to TV manufacturers to get their apps added to the smart TVs and the remotes that come with them.Imagine if 3rd party apps could pay extra to add a button to your iPhone's apps list, or a direct button on your phone.Pretty good deal, right?Well, as long as we have enough "prime real estate" on remotes, I guess.Okay, so what's the point here?I think by now, you can understand how the growth of smart...

Artificial Intelligence

Google AI/Gemini Will Help Google Win the Wearables Space: Pixel Watch Leapfrogs

September 11, 2025

Artificial Intelligence,Google,Technology / September 11, 2025 / By : Barbaros Google AI/Gemini Will Help Google Win the Wearables Space: Pixel Watch Leapfrogs Thanks to Google AI/Gemini and Personalized Health Coach, Google will win the wearables space Inspiration: Several attempts by Apple Fitness+ to monetize, my own need for such an agent, and the announcement of the Apple Watch 11.Alright. I wasn't going to write about this piece this week, but Apple's announcement of Watch 11 yesterday made this hypothesis even clearer.Thanks to Google AI/Gemini, Google will win the wearables space.If you are following the space, other than the specific use cases (like uses by software developers), the battle for the consumer market is being fought between ChatGPT and Gemini (even though Meta AI is growing significantly, thanks to the distribution power of Meta Platforms).So, the question is: if the wearables battle happens between Apple (with inferior Apple Intelligence) and Google, doesn't that give an advantage to Google to leapfrog?Let's talk about a few points to paint the picture.Personalized Health Coach, Powered by Google AIHere is a quick video to share what it is.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Az-rDDEuT8Now, if you have tried Oura ring's personal insights, you already know how amazing these insights are.You figure...

Artificial Intelligence

Best Way to Work with AI: Talk to It Like a Friend

September 9, 2025

Uncategorized / September 9, 2025 / By : Barbaros Best Way to Work with AI: Talk to It Like a Friend Best Way to Work with AI (From a Performance Marketer and SEO Expert's Perspective) Inspiration: How people used to call the way I write as Grammarly, and my odd talent for SEO without any prior training.Alright, let's get it rolling.Before we get into the "best way to work with AI", we need to make it clear that this is not the technically best way to work with AI (as that will require domain expertise where you train your own models).By AI, we are referring to the good-old chatbots of OpenAI's ChatGPT, Meta's Meta AI and Google AI's Gemini.Ready? Great.The main reason I write this is not to pretend I know the best way to work with AI, but rather to share my experience of helping others who kept asking me the question, "Barbaros, how do I best use AI?" Like I am Sam Altman... Yet, my friends asked me about this question quite often, and they really enjoyed my reply to them.Best way to use AI? You talk to it like you would talk to a human.Wait, what? That simple?Yup. It's that...

Performance Marketing

If You Want To Be Great In Marketing: You Don’t Work 9 to 5

September 4, 2025

Performance Marketing,Personal / September 4, 2025 / By: Barbaros If You Want To Be Great In Marketing: You Don’t Work 9 to 5 If You Want to Be Great in Marketing: You Don't Work 9 to 5 Inspiration: Mark Zuckerberg's personal branding revamp, Donald Trump's podcast appearances, and Elon Musk being chronically online. The title basically says it all.If you want to be a great marketer, you don't work a 9-to-5.In fact, you can't.Most jobs can be perfectly executed by sticking to the usual office hours. Salespeople can call their prospects, as the prospects will also be working during those hours. Doctors can see their patients during office hours, as the patients (or, shall we say, customers) have no other choice.Marketers are required to work past office hours to be great at what they do.Don't get me wrong, you can be a good marketer by sticking to the usual 9-to-5. But, I am sorry to share that greatness will require you to push past those hours.To put it simply, markets don't stop functioning after your colleagues clock out of their jobs.Ironically, not to be mixed with the stock market (which basically stops at 4:00 PM), the consumer markets where marketers work...

Personal

Writing. But Why Now?

August 13, 2025

Personal / August 13, 2025 / By : Barbaros Writing. But Why Now? Are blogs even cool anymore? Inspiration: Paul Graham's Essays and Scott Galloway's discipline for writing.Time and time again, the same quote shows up in front of me: the brain is made for creating ideas, not keeping them.Perhaps it is handling many brands and ideas at once, or the biology that does its job with aging, I now realize that the accumulation of thoughts is not productive unless they are transferred to a notepad. We, at least I, am very prone to forgetting things, unless I note them down.So, here is an attempt at a notepad for me, especially as my current access to lovely Threads remains restricted, while I visit my family in Turkey (now called Türkiye, as unusual as it might be even for me to say).If you know me on a personal level, you also know that I try to keep my messages short, yet still write visibly more than an average person.Wanna hear a funny story? Even before ChatGPT got released, people used to mention that my writing "sounds like Grammarly". Fast forward into the age of AI chatbots/LLMs today, and that geeky comment...

DIGITAL & PERFORMANCE MARKETINGCONSULTANT

AVAILABLE FOR PROJECTS IN 2026

Performance Marketing Leader

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Performance Marketing

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Flywheel Digital Inc.

Paid Growth Strategist

2025 - PRESENT

Timebomb Trading Inc.

Performance Marketing Manager

2021 - PRESENT

Quandatum

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2023 - PRESENT​

The Status Bureau (Agency)

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2023 - 2024

Mayker Capital

Advisor (Marketing)

2022 - 2024

Omnifilm Entertainment

Digital Marketing Strategist

2022 - 2023

Blink. Digital Creative (Agency)

Digital Marketing Manager

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Grow with Search Inc. (Agency)

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2019 - 2020

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DIGITAL & PERFORMANCE
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PROJECTS IN 2026

2023 - PRESENT

JULY 24, 2024
Marketing Manager at OzTREKK

JULY 25, 2022
Director of Distribution at Omnifilm

September 25, 2019
Brand Founder & Director @ SleepGift