Economy & Markets
We assume a national sovereign wealth fund must aggressively purchase foreign assets to maximize domestic returns. In reality the absolute best use of American capital is aggressively resurrecting its own dormant industrial monopolies.
Economy & Markets
We assume venture capital success relies purely on public relations and loud marketing. In reality tracking the quiet networks of elite operators provides the ultimate asymmetric leverage for an intelligent investor.
We assume the ultimate global messaging application will remain permanently free and beautifully simple forever. In reality Meta is launching a paid subscription tier that will completely destroy the minimalist architecture of the platform.
Economy & Markets
We assume the venture capital hierarchy in Silicon Valley is a permanent establishment. In reality the torch of global technological dominance is currently passing to an entirely new breed of quiet algorithmic allocators.
Economy & Markets
We assume massive private equity firms possess impenetrable financial models and absolute market foresight. In reality the recent multi billion dollar writedown of Medallia proves that artificial intelligence is quietly destroying traditional software valuations.
Gemini
We assume Apple holds an impenetrable monopoly over the software ecosystem on their own physical hardware. In reality Google just launched a native artificial intelligence application that completely bypasses the traditional browser to dominate your desktop.
Privacy
We assume the desire for absolute digital privacy is a universal human instinct that only grows stronger over time. In reality privacy concerns operate on a massive generational pendulum where younger consumers gladly trade their intimate data for algorithmic utility.
Economy & Markets
We assume gold is valuable because it is a universally rare element. In reality it is only rare on the surface of our specific planet and space mining will soon shatter this economic illusion.
Geopolitics & Defence
We assume satellites are perfectly safe because they operate in the absolute vacuum of space. In reality orbital infrastructure is currently the most highly contested and vulnerable warfighting domain on earth.
Geopolitics & Defence
We assume dropping a massive metal rod from space creates an apocalyptic explosion. In reality the fundamental laws of physics and raw launch economics make this weapon completely impractical.
Artificial Intelligence
We assume the global artificial intelligence race will be decided purely by raw algorithmic superiority and computing power. In reality the United States government is quietly preparing to completely ban Chinese language models to protect domestic technology monopolies.
Effective Executive
We assume hyper growth tech companies must maintain a toxic founder culture to survive. In reality Dara Khosrowshahi saved Uber by injecting absolute adult supervision and returning to fundamental unit economics.