Economy & Markets
We assume the Canadian housing crisis only hurts renters and young families trying to buy a starter home. Skyrocketing rent is actually destroying the domestic retail economy by erasing all consumer disposable income.
Productivity
We think the next major leap in economic productivity will come from artificial intelligence software. The true catalyst for global growth is actually a new class of pharmaceutical drugs designed to permanently eliminate human fatigue.
Economy & Markets
We assume Uber will dominate the next decade purely through autonomous ride hailing. The brutal reality of robotaxi competition means their true profit engine relies entirely on acquiring Travis Kalanick and his robotic food startup Atoms.
Apple
We often attribute the success of Apple solely to visionary product design and brilliant marketing. In reality their true superpower is promoting the exact right chief executive for the specific macroeconomic crisis of the decade.
Artificial Intelligence
Investors believe dedicated artificial intelligence gadgets are the next great consumer frontier. The inevitable retail failure of these redundant devices will actually be the specific catalyst that pops the broader technology bubble.
We assume the rise of artificial intelligence search engines will destroy Google because users will stop clicking on traditional website links. Their quiet transition away from cost per click bidding actually guarantees their revenue will survive the zero click future.
Marketing
We assume global marketing campaigns just need minor translation tweaks to succeed internationally. The recent Lululemon disaster proves that ignoring deep cultural and historical context in China will permanently destroy your brand equity.
Geopolitics & Defence
We assume building a world class soccer team requires decades of organic cultural passion. China is treating the sport exactly like a hardware supply chain by engineering a specialized football city to manufacture a victory.
Artificial Intelligence
The technology industry assumes the artificial intelligence race will be won by cloud software companies. Apple is quietly positioning its physical hardware and privacy ecosystem to capture the actual profits.
Economy & Markets
The venture capital industry assumes you need a loud media empire to win the best deals. Thrive Capital proves that taking highly convicted bets on obscure niche infrastructure is the real path to generational wealth.
Apple
Western markets assume Apple has completely saturated the global smartphone industry. The true growth engine of the next decade actually lies in emerging economies where the device serves as the ultimate symbol of upward mobility.
Geopolitics & Defence
We are spending billions to build brilliant autonomous drone swarms for future ground wars. The ultimate victor will actually be the military that perfects the electromagnetic pulse to turn those robots into useless plastic.