Geopolitics & Defence
We assume the impending global wealth transfer will simply enrich a massive new generation evenly across the globe. In reality the specific demographic architecture of China is creating an unprecedented economic funnel that will concentrate massive capital into incredibly few hands.
Economy & Markets
We assume massive corporate demand for computer hardware permanently destroys consumer affordability. In reality the current artificial intelligence memory shortage is aggressively funding the exact innovations that will eventually flood the retail market with incredibly cheap storage.
Economy & Markets
We assume government mandates guaranteeing fair pay and algorithmic transparency ultimately protect the working class. In reality these massive legislative interventions frequently destroy the underlying unit economics and severely cripple broader economic growth.
Geopolitics & Defence
We assume Dubai holds a permanent monopoly on global nomadic wealth and zero tax entrepreneurship. In reality Turkiye is aggressively positioning itself to capture massive capital flight triggered by regional Middle Eastern instability.
Artificial Intelligence
e assume artificial intelligence is the ultimate threat to global employment. In reality the impending transition to infinite clean energy will displace significantly more human labor than any software algorithm.
Economy & Markets
We assume a national sovereign wealth fund must aggressively purchase foreign assets to maximize domestic returns. In reality the absolute best use of American capital is aggressively resurrecting its own dormant industrial monopolies.
Economy & Markets
We assume venture capital success relies purely on public relations and loud marketing. In reality tracking the quiet networks of elite operators provides the ultimate asymmetric leverage for an intelligent investor.
Economy & Markets
We assume the venture capital hierarchy in Silicon Valley is a permanent establishment. In reality the torch of global technological dominance is currently passing to an entirely new breed of quiet algorithmic allocators.
Economy & Markets
We assume massive private equity firms possess impenetrable financial models and absolute market foresight. In reality the recent multi billion dollar writedown of Medallia proves that artificial intelligence is quietly destroying traditional software valuations.
Economy & Markets
We assume gold is valuable because it is a universally rare element. In reality it is only rare on the surface of our specific planet and space mining will soon shatter this economic illusion.
Artificial Intelligence
We assume the global artificial intelligence race will be decided purely by raw algorithmic superiority and computing power. In reality the United States government is quietly preparing to completely ban Chinese language models to protect domestic technology monopolies.
Technology
We assume modern society has peaked and the future holds only dystopian collapse. In reality, compounding technological breakthroughs are about to engineer the most prosperous and exciting era in the history of our species.