Economy & Markets
We assume Alphabet is burning hundreds of billions of dollars just to compete in a digital chat bot war. In reality they are aggressively stockpiling the compute required to power physical robotics and autonomous global mobility.
Economy & Markets
We assume presidential pardons are just about political favors or high profile justice. Pardoning Martin Shkreli is actually a calculated macroeconomic signal that the era of aggressive and unregulated biotechnology is officially returning.
Artificial Intelligence
We assume the most advanced artificial intelligence will always be locked behind American corporate servers. The recent release of the Kimi K3 model by Chinese startup Moonshot proves that the open weight ecosystem is rapidly closing the cognitive gap.
SpaceX
We assume Stripe and Advent can quietly swallow PayPal with their recent fifty-three billion dollar offer. The reality is this initial bid will likely trigger a historic bidding war, forcing an unprecedented syndicate between Stripe, Block, and Elon Musk.
Artificial Intelligence
We assume enterprise software means paying AI monopolies forever. In reality, autonomous agents will make open-source fine-tuning so easy that businesses will simply manufacture their own intelligence.
Technology
We assume Nvidia holds an unbreakable monopoly on the hardware powering artificial intelligence. Apple's aggressive development of the M5 Ultra and Project Baltra proves that the most valuable tech companies are quietly building the server silicon required to completely bypass them.
Peter Thiel
We assume major pharmaceutical companies only acquire safe, traditional chemical compounds. Eli Lilly just dropped nearly four billion dollars on a Peter Thiel-backed psychedelics maker, proving that the smartest venture capital targets heavily regulated taboos before the mainstream catches on.
Artificial Intelligence
We assume artificial intelligence will permanently displace the global workforce because we assume the population will remain intact. The grim reality is that a major kinetic conflict would violently erase the labor surplus and instantly make human capital scarce again.
Technology
We assume Apple registering its artificial intelligence in China is just a standard regulatory compromise to sell hardware. In reality, it turns the iPhone into a geopolitical Trojan horse that smuggles foreign language models directly across Western borders.
Technology
We are currently drowning in a media ecosystem engineered to sell us algorithmic pessimism. The ultimate antidote to this cycle is a podcast that proves the next decade will actually be the most abundant era in human history.
Artificial Intelligence
We assume the partnership between Apple and OpenAI was an unbreakable alliance. Their sudden implosion into a brutal trade secret lawsuit just handed Google the keys to the entire mobile intelligence market.
Robotics
We are entirely distracted by cloud algorithms and orbital rockets. The true geopolitical war of the next decade is the race for "Physical AI," and the government is about to deploy sweeping tax incentives to guarantee America builds it.