Economy & Markets
We love to talk about the "Idea." But a mediocre seed in fertile soil will always beat a perfect seed in concrete. Inspiration: Watching founders struggle to raise $50k in Europe, while a “Uber for Dog Walking” raised $10M in San Francisco. We are sold a lie: “If
Economy & Markets
The "news" is slow. The betting markets are instant. And the reason they are so accurate is the one thing we aren't supposed to talk about: Insider Trading. Inspiration: Coffeezilla’s breakdown of how prediction markets are basically unregulated casinos, and watching the GPT-5.2
Economy & Markets
Cypherpunks wanted to kill the Fed. Instead, they built the infrastructure for the ultimate surveillance state. Inspiration: Realizing that “freedom money” (Tether) is actually the most trackable asset in human history. Ten years ago, crypto was a rebellion. It was run by cypherpunks and libertarians. The goal was simple: Separate
Economy & Markets
I used to read balance sheets. Now, I read the guest lists of private dinners. Inspiration: A throwaway line on the Prof G Podcast about “following the capital, not the earnings,” and realizing that valuations are just feelings with math. Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I am a
Economy & Markets
We talk about climate change, AI safety, and pandemics. But we ignore the only risk that can end civilization in 30 minutes. Inspiration: Reading H.R. McMaster’s At War with Ourselves and realizing that “Strategic Ambiguity” is just a fancy word for gambling. We have a blind spot. We
Leadership
In a world of geopolitical noise, these two voices cut through the propaganda with something rare: actual insight. Inspiration: Realizing that 99% of “China Analysis” I read is either Washington hawks selling fear or Beijing bureaucrats selling fantasy. Trying to understand China today is like trying to watch a movie
Artificial Intelligence
It looks like a partnership. It acts like a dependency. In reality, it is a slow-motion acquisition. Inspiration: Satya Nadella’s calm demeanor during the OpenAI coup, and the old Microsoft playbook: “Embrace, Extend, Extinguish.” November 2023. The Board fires Sam Altman. Chaos ensues. Satya Nadella didn’t panic.
Economy & Markets
In 1975, Vietnam was one of the poorest nations on earth. Today, it is the new factory of the world. Here is how they used free trade and math scores to beat their neighbors.
Affinity
Canva just made professional design free. Adobe is buying SEO tools to survive. The king is dead. Inspiration: The growth of Figma in the recent years. How easy it was to transition from Photoshop to Affinity. The acquisition of SEMRush. For decades, Adobe wasn’t just a software company. It
Artificial Intelligence
You can buy Nvidia H100s, but you can't buy a culture of innovation. The "Giga-Projects" are beautiful, expensive distractions from the real work. Inspiration: The news that NEOM is being scaled back (after burning billions) and the realization that “Humain” is a venture capital firm
Economy & Markets
The OS war isn't over; it just changed battlefields. Valve is doing what Microsoft refused to do: building a console that is actually a PC. Inspiration: The realization that my “gaming PC” is just a glorified console that forces me to deal with Windows updates. We thought it
Prediction Markets
The stock market is boring. The new casino is pricing "Truth," and it's about to eat the world. Inspiration: Watching the Polymarket chart during the election and realizing it was more accurate (and addictive) than CNN. While everyone was busy watching Nvidia stock charts, a quiet