SpaceX IPO: The Rising Tide That Will Lift All Satellites
The prediction markets are betting on Elon becoming a trillionaire. That math only works with a SpaceX IPO. When the giant goes public, the "Halo Effect" will reprice the entire space sector.
Everyone wants a piece of SpaceX, but most won't get it. The smart money is positioning itself in the "Supply Chain" that will service the giant.
Inspiration: Seeing the Kalshi prediction markets price in Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire, and realizing that math only works if SpaceX unlocks its liquidity.
(None of this is financial advice. I'm sure you know by now...)
Prediction markets like Kalshi are signaling something massive. They are betting heavily on Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire by 2027.
Tesla stock alone can't get him there. The only asset capable of bridging that gap is SpaceX (specifically, a Starlink spinoff IPO).
This isn't just a listing; it is the validation of "Space" as a mature asset class.
The "Halo Effect" (Where the Money Goes)
Everyone wants to buy SpaceX. But the IPO will be oversubscribed. Institutional investors will get the shares; retail will get nothing.
That "rejected capital" doesn't leave the sector. It looks for proxies.
Investors will ask: "If SpaceX is worth $500 Billion, why is Redwire trading at these multiples?" This triggers a massive repricing of the small-cap space sector.
The Watchlist: The "Picks and Shovels"
If SpaceX is the Gold Rush, these companies (aka my favourites) sell the pickaxes.
1. Redwire (RDW): The Infrastructure Play They make the solar arrays, the deployables, and the 3D printers for space. They are the backbone. They are profitable and boring, which is exactly what you want in a volatile sector.
2. BlackSky (BKSY): The Intelligence Play They provide real-time satellite imagery. As the geopolitical world gets more dangerous, their data becomes invaluable to the Pentagon. They are the "Eyes" of the new defense network.
3. MDA Space (MDA): The Robotics Play The makers of the Canadarm. As we move to building things in space (stations, lunar bases), you need robotics. MDA has the heritage and the government contracts to win.
4. Sidus Space (SIDU): The Manufacturing Play A smaller, riskier bet. They offer "Satellite-as-a-Service." They manufacture the hardware for others. If the sector booms, their order book fills up.
The Pivot to "Space Defense"
Space isn't just for exploration anymore. It’s a warfighting domain.
The US Space Force is moving away from "Big, juicy targets" (massive $1B satellites) to "Proliferated LEO" (thousands of cheap, small satellites).
This benefits companies like BlackSky and Sidus, who specialize in small, rapid-deploy hardware. A SpaceX IPO brings Wall Street attention to this shift, turning "Space Stocks" from speculative tech plays into "Defense Industrial" plays.
Conclusion: The Decoupling
For years, space stocks moved with Bitcoin or ARK Invest. They were "risk assets."
My Prediction: The SpaceX IPO will decouple them. Space will become a serious, industrial sector. The "Tourists" will buy the IPO hype; the "Investors" are already buying the supply chain.
