Effective Executive Series: Sarah Paine (The Strategist Who Decoded the World Order)

I’ve read Kissinger. I’ve read Mearsheimer. But Sarah Paine explains 500 years of history—and the next 20 years of conflict—better than anyone.

Inspiration: Watching her interview and realizing that while generals talk about "tactics" (winning battles), she talks about "strategy" (choosing the right war).

If you want to understand why Russia invaded Ukraine, or why China is building a navy, you don't need to watch CNN. You need to read Sarah Paine.

She is a Professor of Strategy and Policy at the Naval War College. And she has a framework that decodes the chaos of the modern world.

It comes down to two types of powers: Continental and Maritime.

The Framework: Land vs. Sea

Continental Powers (Russia, China, Napoleon's France): They are obsessed with territory. Their security comes from expanding borders.

• The Logic: "Might makes right."
• The Economy: Wealth is finite (land). If I take your land, I get richer, and you get poorer. It is a zero-sum game.
• The Friends: They don't have allies; they have vassals. You either submit, or you are an enemy.

Maritime Powers (US, UK, Post-WWII Europe): They are obsessed with trade. Their security comes from the free flow of goods.

• The Logic: "Rule of Law."
• The Economy: Wealth is infinite (compounding). If we trade, we both get richer. It is a positive-sum game.
• The Friends: They have allies. The US alliance network is the greatest wealth-generating machine in history.

The Insight: The moment a Continental power tries to become a Maritime power (building a massive navy to challenge the trade order), they usually collapse. They can't afford both a massive army to crush their neighbors and a massive navy to fight the world.

The "Pivotal Error" of Russia

Sarah Paine introduced me to the concept of the "Pivotal Error."

We all make mistakes. But a pivotal error is one where you cannot go back to the status quo ante. The choices available to you after the error are strictly worse than the choices you had before.

Putin’s Pivotal Error: The invasion of Ukraine.

Russia had a golden opportunity in the 2000s. High oil prices could have funded infrastructure and the rule of law. Instead, Putin chose wars (Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine) to secure his internal power.

The result? Russia is now a vassal state.

Let’s look at the math. In 1980, the Soviet Union had 6x the GDP of China. Today, China has 14x the GDP of Russia.

Russia is "toast." They are permanently locked into being China's gas station. They traded a future of integration for a fantasy of empire.

The Continental Trap (China)

China is making the same mistake.

They are trying to expand territorially (South China Sea, Taiwan) while relying on maritime trade for their wealth. You cannot bite the hand that feeds you.

By antagonizing Japan, the Philippines, India, and Vietnam, China is creating its own containment. They are forcing their neighbors into the arms of the US.

As Paine notes, Continental powers are inherently inefficient because they prioritize Control over Growth. They suppress their own population to stay in power, which kills innovation.

The US Warning

But Paine also has a warning for the West.

The US is a Maritime superpower. Our "Moat" isn't just the Atlantic and Pacific oceans; it is our Alliance System.

If the US abandons its allies (isolationism) or breaks the Rule of Law internally (corruption/institutional decay), we stop being a Maritime power. We become just another large, angry Continental power on a different continent.

Civilizations rarely die by murder. They die by suicide.

Conclusion: Strategy vs. Operations

Generals obsess over Operations (How do we win the battle?). Strategists obsess over Policy (Does this battle make us richer or safer?).

Sarah Paine taught me that you can win every battle and still lose the war if your strategy is flawed. Russia is winning battles in Donbas, but they have already lost the strategic war for their future.

My Take: In business and life, be a Maritime power. Build alliances. Compound wealth. Don't fight for scraps of land; fight for the flow of value.