Google Will Win AI Shopping (Not because of AI, but because of Inventory)
Satya Nadella is excited about Agentic Commerce. But excitement doesn't ship products. Google owns the Merchant Center—the database of every SKU on earth. In the AI shopping war, the one with the inventory wins.
ChatGPT can write a poem about shoes. Google can tell you which size is in stock at the store 3 miles from your house. That is the difference between a demo and a business.
Inspiration: Listening to Satya Nadella’s chat with Stripe about "Agentic Commerce," and realizing that Microsoft is trying to partner its way into a market that Google already owns.
Everyone is talking about "Agentic Commerce"—AI agents that research, negotiate, and buy products for you. Microsoft and Stripe are teaming up to build this layer. It sounds great on paper.
But the winner won't be Microsoft. It will be Google. And it won't be because Gemini is smarter than GPT-4. It will be because of Distribution.
The "Merchant Center" Moat
What is the Google Merchant Center? It is the boring, unsexy database where millions of retailers upload their product feeds every day.
- It knows the SKU.
- It knows the price.
- It knows the real-time inventory level.
- It knows the shipping speed.
It is the fundamental engine of Google Shopping Ads. It has billions of SKUs indexed. Microsoft’s counterpart (Bing Merchant Center) is a ghost town by comparison.
Why Distribution Matters in the Age of AI
An AI Shopping Agent needs three things to work:
- Intent: "I want running shoes." (LLM handles this).
- Payment: "Here is my card." (Stripe handles this).
- Inventory: "Do they have size 10 in stock?" (Only Google has this).
If ChatGPT recommends a shoe, but the link is dead or the size is out of stock, the agent fails. Google’s agent (Gemini) can look directly into the Merchant Center. It creates a Closed Loop.
The Trust Factor (Reviews & Maps)
It isn't just inventory. It’s Trust.
- Reviews: Google owns the reviews.
- Maps: Google knows if the store exists.
If an AI agent is spending my money, I need to know it isn't buying from a scam site. Google’s ecosystem (Verified Merchant program) provides the trust layer that a pure LLM lacks.
Conclusion: The "Full Stack" Advantage
Microsoft and OpenAI are trying to build a shopping brain. Google already owns the shopping body.
My Prediction: When we start letting AI spend our money, we will use the agent that actually knows what is on the shelf. That agent belongs to Google.
