Google: The Largest Company in the Making
The market is obsessed with Nvidia. But history shows that hardware cycles always end. The money is about to flow from the chipmaker to the only company that owns the silicon, the software, and the search bar: Google.
We are watching a "Hardware Cycle" turn into a "Software Cycle." Nvidia won the sprint. Google is built to win the marathon.
Inspiration: Realizing that in 2000, everyone bet on Cisco (the infrastructure). In 2010, the value had moved to Google and Facebook (the application). The same cycle is happening now with Nvidia.
The market has a short memory. Right now, everyone is betting on Nvidia. It seems obvious. They sell the shovels in the gold rush.
But if betting on the "obvious" winner worked forever, Cisco would still be the most valuable company on earth.
The future cycles between Hardware and Software.
- Microsoft & Apple: For decades, they traded the crown. Microsoft owned the software; Apple owned the hardware experience.
- The New Cycle: We are entering the Google & Apple cycle.
The "Nvidia Peak"
Nvidia skyrocketed because they were the only option. But "scarcity" is a temporary moat.
The Shift: The biggest buyers of Nvidia chips (Google, Amazon, Meta) are aggressively building their own silicon. They don't want to pay the "Nvidia Tax" forever.
The Distribution: As the AI hype cools and "CapEx Indigestion" sets in, the money will flow out of the hardware provider and into the platform owner.
The Google Stack (Atom to Android)
Google is the only company that owns the vertical stack completely.
- The Silicon: Google TPUs (Tensor Processing Units). They don't need H100s for everything; they have been building their own AI chips for a decade.
- The Brain: Gemini. It is rapidly catching up to GPT-4 and has a massive context window advantage.
- The Device: Pixel & Android. Once Google unlocks optimal silicon for laptops (like Apple’s M-Series), they control the end-user experience.
The "Conviction" Bet: Google recently issued a 100-Year Bond. Think about that. Institutions are willing to lend money to Google for a century. That is a level of conviction that transcends quarterly earnings. It signals that the market views Google not as a company, but as a sovereign entity.
Conclusion: The Robot Future
This cycle continues as Single-Purpose Robots (humanoids) get developed. Who builds the brain? Google (DeepMind/Gemini). Who builds the map? Google (Maps/spatial data).
My Prediction: The money that flows out of Nvidia won't disappear; it will distribute to Google. They are the sleeping giant about to wake up.
