The markets yawned at Ukraine. Now they are sleeping on Taiwan. But the "Silicon Shield" isn't just about chips—it's about a timeline that ends in 2027.
Inspiration: The market’s dangerous desensitization to war, Anduril’s internal “China 27” roadmap, and the peculiar delays in Arizona.
Remember when the Ukraine war started? The markets crashed. Panic was everywhere.
Now? A missile strike is just a Tuesday. We have priced in the conflict.
We are doing the exact same thing with Taiwan.
The market treats a potential invasion as a “black swan” event—something unlikely and far away.
Here is the reality check: It is neither unlikely nor far away.
But the primary defense mechanism isn’t just military. It’s the “Silicon Shield.”
As long as the world’s most advanced chips (90% of them) are only made in Taiwan, the US will intervene. If Taiwan goes dark, the global economy collapses overnight.
The moment that manufacturing capacity moves, the shield cracks.
Part 1: The “Silicon Shield” & The Delay Strategy
On paper, TSMC is building massive fabs in Arizona to “de-risk” the global supply chain. It’s the ultimate diversification play.
In reality, those Arizona fabs are facing constant, mysterious delays.
We hear about labor shortages. Union disputes. Culture clashes.
But ask yourself: Is the most sophisticated manufacturing company in human history really that bad at project management?
Or is it strategy?
My contrarian take? TSMC knows the game. They know that the moment they can pump out 2nm chips on US soil, their leverage drops to zero. The US incentive to defend the island militarily softens.
They (including, and most likely led by the government) might be intentionally dragging their feet to keep the “Shield” intact. They are trading efficiency for survival.
Part 2: The 2027 Deadline (The Anduril Prophecy)
If you think this is just speculation, look at Anduril.
Palmer Luckey isn’t just the VR guy anymore. He builds the weapons that deter this war. Anduril has an internal war plan explicitly built around “China 27”.
Why 2027?
It’s the date where US intelligence estimates align with Xi Jinping’s own modernization goals for a potential capability to invade.
Notice what China is doing. They aren’t rushing to buy high-end US chips (like Nvidia H100s) anymore. They know they will be cut off.
Instead, they are building domestic clusters of legacy chips (Huawei). They are preparing their infrastructure for a world where they are disconnected from the West.
Part 3: The Energy Bottleneck (The Real Checkmate)
But here is the real checkmate. It’s not about silicon. It’s about oil.
In a Taiwan scenario, the first US move is an energy blockade. China imports massive amounts of oil and gas through the Malacca Strait.
A war machine without oil stops in 3 weeks.
China cannot invade until they are energy independent.
Watch China’s nuclear rollout. They are approving and building reactors faster than any nation in history. They are aggressively securing renewables.
Why? To survive a blockade.
The timeline? They aren’t ready yet. They need to kickstart their pending nuclear plants to secure that independence. This confirms the “wait” strategy.
Part 4: The Japan Factor (Buying Time)
It’s not just the US anymore. Japan is stepping up.
Recent airspace violations and aggressive rhetoric between China and Japan are escalating.
Ironically, this tension helps TSMC. It solidifies the US-Japan-Taiwan alliance.
The more “expensive” an invasion looks for China—militarily, diplomatically, and economically—the longer TSMC stays safe in Taiwan. Japan playing the deterrence card buys everyone more time.
Conclusion: The Game of Chicken
This isn’t just about a factory delay in Arizona. It is a global standoff involving energy grids, missile stockpiles, and chip yields.
The Prediction: TSMC will continue to “delay” full US independence. China will continue to “wait” for energy security.
Final Take: The status quo is terrifying, but it is stable.
The moment TSMC actually starts pumping out 2nm chips in Arizona… that is when you should start worrying.